National and Subnational estimates for Germany

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Table of Contents


Using data available up to the: 2020-08-30

Subnational estimates are available to download here and national estimates are available to download here.

Interactive summary


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-08-30) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Click on a subnational area (or search) to see subnational level estimates. This interactive visualisation is powered by RtD3(Gibbs, Abbott, and Funk 2020).

National summary - based on reported cases

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-08-30)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-08-30) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time). The median and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date 1514 (397 – 3063)
Expected change in daily cases Unsure
Effective reproduction no. 0.94 (0.55 – 1.35)
Rate of growth -0.02 (-0.13 – 0.1)
Doubling/halving time (days) -42.5 (7.3 – -5.3)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of report, date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 2: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

National summary - based on reported deaths

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-08-30)

Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-08-30) of the number of confirmed deaths by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed deaths, the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time). The median and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date 4 (0 – 11)
Expected change in daily cases Unsure
Effective reproduction no. 0.97 (0.57 – 1.32)
Rate of growth -0.01 (-0.13 – 0.09)
Doubling/halving time (days) -76.1 (8.1 – -5.5)

Confirmed deaths, their estimated date of report, date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 3: A.) Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report. B.) Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. C.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Regional Breakdown

Data availability

Limitations

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed death count estimates by date of infection


Figure 3: Confirmed deaths with date of infection on the 2020-08-30 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed deaths and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmeddeaths. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed deaths


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed deaths and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed deaths


Figure 5: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Confirmed deaths and their estimated date of report in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed deaths


Figure 6: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed deaths. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed deaths and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 8: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Confirmed deaths and their estimated date of report in all regions

Figure 9: Confirmed deaths by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of report (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-08-30 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Estimates based on partial data have been adjusted for right truncation of infections. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation. Uncertainty has been curtailed to a maximum of ten times the maximum number of reported cases for plotting purposes.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-08-30)

Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-08-30) of the number of confirmed deaths by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, the rate of growth, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The median and 90% credible interval is shown.

Abbott, Sam, Katharine Sherratt, Jonnie Bevan, Hamish Gibbs, Joel Hellewell, James Munday, Patrick Barks, Paul Campbell, Flavio Finger, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “Covidregionaldata: Subnational Data for the Covid-19 Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957539.

Gibbs, Hamish, Sam Abbott, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “RtD3: Rt Visualization in D3.” Zenodo - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4011841.

“Tabelle Mit Den Aktuellen Covid-19 Infektionen Pro Tag (Zeitreihe).” 2020. Germany: Robert Koch Institut; Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie. https://npgeo-corona-npgeo-de.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.

Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.

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Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Source code is available at https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid, unless otherwise noted. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".